Super Regional Three - November 8, 2010
Top 6 teams after next week's action qualify for post-season.
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| Overall Record | Division II Record |
| 1. | Minnesota Duluth | 10-0 | 10-0 |
| 2. | Augustana (South Dakota) | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 3. | Grand Valley State | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 4. | Nebraska-Kearney | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| 5. | St. Cloud State | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 6. | Hillsdale | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 7. | Michigan Tech | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 8. | Wayne State (Michigan) | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| 9. | Colorado School of Mines | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 10. | Colorado State-Pueblo | 8-2 | 7-2 |
3 comments:
Seems like the chatter from the fans and team is that the Chargers won't make the playoffs this year.
We may need a little help but I think we have a shot.
Sure, it was disheartening to see Hillsdale drop in the regional rankings from 5 to 6 after a decisive win...but with the poor SOS it was no surprise. One would only assume with another week and with Hillsdale playing an even weaker team, Tiffin, we don't have a shot. So what stars need to align for Hillsdale to make it in?
Looking at the regional rankings...seems like the top 5 teams will not have any effect on Hilldale unless one of them loses. It is possible that (3)GValley could lose to SValley but unlikely that GValley would move below Hillsdale even with that loss.
(5) St. Cloud plays at MSU Moorhead, a 2-8 team. A loss here would clearly help Hillsdale but again unlikely.
Everyone above Hillsdale will most likely win and stay in their collective rankings. So the teams below are the ones to watch...last week we saw St. Cloud jump us by beating a 50% team. So as you look below (6) Hillsdale, will this happen again? (7) MI Tech could jump us by beating Northern 5-5...however, we beat MI Tech and they didn't play a full schedule. This is our only hope. We need to pray for a Northern win for sure. Next is (8) Wayne State who fortunately plays a weak Findlay team, that and the fact that Wayne State didn't have GValley on their schedule should rule out any movement upward for them. Next is (9) Colorado Mines. The death nail for Hillsdale would be a Colorado 8-2 win over (4) NE Kearney 9-1. Game is played at Colorado. If Colorado wins they would move up considerably and most likely dislodge Hillsdale.
In summary...
Hillsdale's best chances to move up is a MSU Moorhead upset of St.Cloud
Hillsdale's greatest threat to be dislodged is Colorado Mines win over NE-Kearney.
The intangleable is what happens with MI Tech if they beat Northern. This will likely take a human intervention (like last year) to keep Hillsdale at #6 using the logic I spelled out above as the math may and most likely will move them ahead of Hillsdale.
Is this an accurate assessment at this stage? Wondering what your thoughts are or what I may have missed?
Pretty good analysis Mitch and I am in the process of posting my own.
There is a rule about teams being side by side and the head to head results. This could come into play.
Bottom line is that anything can happen outside of the numbers. Bottom line for me is the human factor eye test or smell test or whatever you want to call it.
I will attest that Hillsdale is a better team and has overall better body of work. National polls are going to count in the equation but can the committee ignore the #13 ranking Hillsdale has? Can you leave a top 15 team out of the mix even if it's not official criteria?
Is the committee going to set precedent that beating GVSU going to be a yearly automatic qualifier?
The GVSU team we beat last season to get into the playoffs was a lot better than this GV team Tech beat.
All I know is what every football player at Hillsdale College has been taught over the past 30 years. Control the factors you can control.
I think it's more important that MTU wins becasue head to head we beat them and we continue to gain computer points for their record and the 2nd tier wins against stronger teams ie 5-5 NMU. We don't want WSU on our back in this because of the head to head scenario. Remember even though MTU beat GVSU we gain alot of points with a GVSU win because the MTU victory we had gains us points every time MTU wins and everytime GVSU wins they get stronger in MTU's computer points and ultimately ours as well.
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