Tradition • Character • Service

Tradition • Character • Service

Monday, October 25, 2010

AFCA Poll: Chargers slide 11 to #17

It's time to climb back up that ladder for Hillsdale. The Charger drop 11 spots this week after a 5 point loss to 6-2 Wayne State.

Man, this reminds me a lot of hitting my mid-thirties. Work out like a mad man, eat perfectly, and see a hard but steady climb. Take one trip to Vegas and poof...it's back to lumpy town.

Let's go Chargers. Let's see how many gains we can make over the final three weeks of the season. It's a good thing the polls have no bearing on playoff selections.

AFCA Division II Top 25 (10/25)
1. Grand Valley State (24) (8-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (1) (8-0)
3. Abilene Christian (1) (8-0)
4. Northwest Missouri State (6-1)
5. Texas A&M-Kingsville (7-1)
6. Albany State (8-0)
7. Central Missouri (8-1)
8. Augustana (8-0)
9. Nebraska-Kearney (7-1)
10. Valdosta State (6-1)
11. Shepherd (8-0)
12. California (PA) (7-1)
13. Bloomsburg (7-1)
14. West Texas A&M (6-2)
15. Kutztown (8-0)
16. Colorado School of Mines (7-1)
17. Hillsdale (6-2)
18. Winston-Salem State (8-1)
19. Delta State (6-2)
20. St. Cloud State (7-1)
21. North Alabama (6-2)
22. Midwestern State (6-2)
23. St. Augustine's (7-1)
24. Mercyhurst (6-2)
25. Fort Valley State (7-1)

Others Receiving Votes
Morehouse, West Alabama, Wayne State (MI), New Haven, Ouachita Baptist, Central Washington, Tuskegee, Wingate, Carson-Newman, Colorado State-Pueblo, Washburn, Humboldt State, Southwest Baptist

6 comments:

mitch said...

Can you shed some light on the selection process?

You said...good thing the poll position has no bearing on the playoff selection. I would think the poll standing would have a bearing on the vote?

Could you explain how teams are selected and what has to happen, in your opinion, for HDale to go to the playoffs. HDale has had 2 losses and missed the playoffs, HD has had 2 losses and made the playoffs. It's tough not knowing how this works. I gotta believe there are a lot of folks like me who would love to hear from you on this.

Please comment on your site if possible.

Thanks

Andy Losik said...

Thanks for the comment.

The nation is divided into 4 regions. Hillsdale and the GLIAC as well as the Northern Sun and Rocky Mountain conference are all part of Region 3. Six teams from these 3 leagues will make the field of 24. The top 2 get Week 1 byes.

The core of the process is based upon a really complicated strength of schedule formula as well as win-loss records. Neither the AFCA poll or the D2football.com poll play any role...well allegedly.

The S-O-S is hard to calculate because it takes your opponents' records and all of their opponents' records as well. Every year fans try to do the math to decide who will get in. Some get close but never really nail it.

The NCAA will release its first set of rankings next Monday based on the numbers: SOS and W-L. Depending on who beats who and the ways the SOS figures change, those teams will move around a bit until Selection Sunday.

That Sunday can be a bit murky. Last year Hillsdale actually benefited from the murkiness. First, a regional committee will look at the numbers and then factor some "other" factors. In its rule book, the NCAA lists head to head results as one of these factors. The regional committee makes it selection and sends it onto the national committee for final approval.

I mentioned that the "murkiness" helped Hillsdale last year. They weren't on the top 6 list sent over from the regional committee.

Remember, I also said the polls don't factor into this process...allegedly. When the national committee got the list lacking Hillsdale, it overruled the regional committee and put the Chargers in the field. Why? One can only reason that the quality of the win over #1 GVSU made the Chargers look playoff worthy.

So...it's all about math, but in the end isn't completely. The polls don't factor into the math, but sometimes beating a really highly ranked team does factor into the final selection. See. I told you it gets murky.

mitch said...

Thanks Andy, that was very helpful. I'm not saying that I understand it completely, but at least I know the process, murky as it is.

It would be interesting to know, if it was decided on polls, and the season ended today, would Hillsdale make it in? Are we in the top six from the GLIAC, Northern Sun, & Rocky Mountain leagues, from the NCAA poll? I could do that work myself, but you might know off the top. I know it's not calculated that way, however, the polls also take into account strength of schedule and such in an anecdotal way (not a mathematical calculation) but still a factor.

On the surface it would seem that 2 teams would make it in from the GLIAC and given Hillsdale and Grand Valley are the only teams from the GLIAC in the top 20, that there is a lot of hope.

Wasn't Hillsdale ranked 10th in the national polling at seasons end last year? And they didn't make the top 6 teams submitted from our league. So being ranked 17th doesn't instill a lot of hope. Also, our last 3 games are against weak teams, so I'm not sure how you rise higher in the polls, math formulas, or whatever other factors are considered even if you win out the rest the year.

Any additional thoughts?

Andy Losik said...

1. Grand Valley State (8-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (8-0)
8. Augustana (8-0)
9. Nebraska-Kearney (7-1)
16. Colorado School of Mines (7-1)
17. Hillsdale (6-2)

There you go Mitch. 6th seed if based on the AFCA poll and the season ended today.

Interesting thought.

mitch said...

Andy, as you posted on FB...not sure if the Grand Valley loss will hurt Hillsdale or not. However, it is interesting to note other factors in our region and how some of these games in the RMAC & NSIC conferences may help our cause.

Saturday St.Cloud of the NSIC conference lost to Minn Duluth. St.Cloud was ahead of Hillsdale in the D2 polling - they were 16 & Hillsdale was 19 in the last D2 poll.

Also, in the RMAC Colorado Mines(16) and Nebraska-Kerney(9) play each other the last game of the season. One would assume a Colorado loss would knock them down the polls below Hillsdale(17).

Just a few bright spots as we head into the home stretch.

Do you think there is a chance MI Tech will rise above Hillsdale or will Hillsdale be lowered in the polling due to the GV loss? I know we will find this out shortly, just interesting to speculate.

Thoughts?

Andy Losik said...

Something that may lead to Tech's demise is the fact that they didn't not play an out of conference game. Both Hillsdale and Wayne State beat Ferris and Northwood respectively as OOC opponents. The NCAA looks at OOC results almost as bonus points.

There will be a lot of scoreboard watching from here on out.

Within 24 hours we will have a much clearer picture as the regional rankings are released tomorrow afternoon.

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